Election Day, Finally

Speaking as someone with a more than casual interest in politics, even I find myself exhausted at the end of this campaign season. Maybe it’s because the fight started earlier than ever this time; the ink was barely dry on 2006 ballots before presidential candidates began announcing. And now we come to the end.

The influence any president has over the economy is widely overestimated. George W. Bush threw everything he had at the markets this year, and look where we are. So I am not convinced it makes a great deal of difference who captures the White House, at least from an investment point of view. The cards have been dealt, and either McCain or Obama will draw a Recession Straight.

Nevertheless, the rally that began last week remains in effect. Further gains won’t be surprising once the electoral uncertainty is behind us. What remains unclear is how much of the current rally is short-covering, how much is bargain-hunting, and how much is simple relief that October is over and the world is still turning. The sectors that are now bouncing the highest are generally those which fell the hardest. This makes it hard to discern longer-term trends.

Monday’s action was remarkable because it was unremarkable – no drama, no big moves, just a nice, calm trading day. It would be very nice to see more such days. Happy Voting, and may the best man win.

Photo credit: TimShoesUntied