You Can’t Have It Both Ways!
“The market is discounting the turn in the economy.” Isn’t that a common refrain these days? Every time I turn around, someone on bubblevision or in the blogosphere tells me the reason the market is going up is that it is a leading indicator and portends better days ahead. There has been...
A Bi-Polar Market
The lucky few Americans who are finishing up a two-week vacation tomorrow may be surprised when they next check their brokerage account balances this weekend. Assume for a moment they packed up the station wagon, loaded the kids, and headed to the lake on Friday, July 10th. Maybe our nuclear couple...
Silver: Four Ways to Go Long
Silver has a long history. Ancient cultures used silver for trade, jewelry, and crafts. Silver ore was first processed by the Chaldeans around 2500 BC as well as in Asia Minor (Turkey). In an effort to meet rising societal demand, ancient Mediterranean cultures eventually looked to silver deposits...
Get Rid of Debt – It’s That Simple.
So says Nassim Taleb, best-selling author and money manager. Taleb attended a Wall Street Journal conference earlier this week in Washington, D.C., and made some powerful comments regarding the banking and financial services sectors. Big Money has a terrific article by Marion Maneker. Guys like...
Market Leadership Strategy Update
Our free Market Leadership Strategy tries to achieve positive risk-adjusted investment results (and positive alpha), using a long-only approach that is easy for investors to follow. The model generates “equity style” recommendations that can usually be implemented with ETFs, mutual funds,...
AAII Sentiment – Bearish Tilt At All Time High
Computerized Investing (a newsletter from the American Association of Individual Investors) released their March 5, 2009 sentiment survey results yesterday, just in time for a huge counter-trend rally! This week’s survey results saw bullish sentiment fall to 18.92%, below its long-term average of...
Deflation v Inflation
The most frequent question we receive regards inflation. We think that massive government stimulus packages, bank bailouts, ramped-up fed lending facilities, and other similar plans from governments and central banks in Europe and the U.S. will ultimately cause hyperinflation. The derivative question...
Turnaround Thursday?
After sinking early in the day, the stock market had a nice bounce this afternoon. The S&P 500 turned around slightly above its December 1 low point. Is this the bottom? Is the long-anticipated bear market rally about to begin? I don’t think so, and here are my reasons why: 1. The...
Welcome to the New Year
Predicting the future is a tricky business. If only you could see a few minutes ahead you could have bet on the horse that would have won the race. If only you could see a year in advance, you could have double-shorted the S&P last January and made out like a bandit by selling in November. What sort...
The January Effect and IWM
Observe the stock market long enough and you start to notice patterns on the calendar. In fact, there is a whole category of “seasonality” trades that are based on tendencies for certain things to happen at certain times of the year. None of them are perfect, but they work often enough...
