Economic Recovery: Determining the Undeterminable
Ask five economists what the economy will do and you’re likely to get five different explanations. Unlike calculus which has right and wrong answers, economics is a combination of math, art, science, and divination. That’s why there’s so much disagreement. Where one economist’s tea leaves...
Consumers and the Recession
Where we are in this recession is something the economic historians will decide. What we’ve become during this recession is already evident. Whether it’s scaling back on a flat screen TV purchase (like my family) or clipping coupons again, we’ve all been affected by “recessionitis.” Chances...
Fed Fights For Its Secrets
A judge has ordered the Federal Reserve Board to give up at least some of its secrets. In deciding a complaint filed by Bloomberg News last November, U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska told the Fed it must release details about its various crisis-liquidity programs no later than August 31. When the...
Job Market Improves Slightly
This morning’s monthly payrolls report came in better than expected, sparking a rally in stocks and driving bond yields higher. The headline numbers: payrolls fell by 247,000 in July, far better than the 443,000 jobs lost the prior month. It was the smallest job loss since August 2008. A...
Citi Bites The Hands That Feed It
People on Fox News Channel and other conservative outlets charge that the government is taking control of private business. Those saying this should know better. The reality is quite the opposite: private businesses, and specifically a few large banks, have taken control of the government. Worse,...
Ten Banks Escape From TARP: Reason To Celebrate?
Today ten of the large banks that received money last year from Hank Paulson’s horribly-misnamed Troubled Asset Relief Program repaid the government a total of $68 billion. Combined with repayments by smaller banks and dividends paid to the Treasury, taxpayers will have recovered almost $75 billion...
Waking A Sleeping Giant
The news flow this week has been breathtaking. We’re finally getting real dialogue about deficits, monetary policy, and interest rates. Unfortunately, it is playing out mostly overseas rather than in our own country. Choice words from German Chancellor Angela Merkel regarding central bank...
Unemployment: The Number To Watch
Amid all the so-called “green shoots” that persuade some people the economy is on the road to recovery, employment numbers are conspicuously absent. Yet unemployment is really the core problem in many ways. Jobless people don’t spend much money, they certainly don’t add money...
Fix Health Care, Fix The Economy
Earlier this week President Obama launched his campaign to reform the American health care system. He is not off to a good start. His White House appearance with representatives of various industry groups promised nothing more than baby steps toward cost-cutting. It won’t be enough. People...
A Very Short History of the Bear Market
In retrospect we’re all geniuses. Anyone can look back on a chart and see when a market turned. But not everyone can call a bottom in the middle of the event – and no one can do it consistently. Those who claim such knowledge usually have names that rhyme with “Made-off”, as in...
